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Think tanker altered Ukraine war map before big Polymarket payout

Cleveland-Stout, Nick
http://responsiblestatecraft.org/isw-polymarket-ukraine-war-map/

Publisher:  Responsible Statecraft
Date Written:  11/12/2025
Year Published:  2025  
Resource Type:  Article

On November 15, as Russian forces were advancing on the outskirts of the town of Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine, retail investors placed risky bets in real time on the battle using Polymarket, a gambling platform that allows users to bet on predictive markets surrounding world events. If Russia took the city by nightfall -- an event that seemed exceedingly unlikely to most observers-- a handful of retail investors stood to earn a profit of as much as 33,000% on the battle from the comfort of their homes.
When nightfall came, these longshot gamblers miraculously won big, though not because Russia took the town (as of writing, Ukraine is still fighting for Myrnohrad). Instead, it was because of an apparent intervention by a staffer at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a D.C.-based think tank that produces daily interactive maps of the conflict in Ukraine.

Abstract: 
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On November 15, as Russian forces were advancing on the outskirts of the town of Myrnohrad in eastern Ukraine, retail investors placed risky bets in real time on the battle using Polymarket, a gambling platform that allows users to bet on predictive markets surrounding world events. If Russia took the city by nightfall — an event that seemed exceedingly unlikely to most observers — a handful of retail investors stood to earn a profit of as much as 33,000% on the battle from the comfort of their homes.

When nightfall came, these longshot gamblers miraculously won big, though not because Russia took the town (as of writing, Ukraine is still fighting for Myrnohrad). Instead, it was because of an apparent intervention by a staffer at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a D.C.-based think tank that produces daily interactive maps of the conflict in Ukraine that Polymarket often relies on to determine the outcome of bets placed on the war.

According to tech outlet 404 Media, just before the market was resolved, someone at ISW edited its map to show that Russia had taken control of a key intersection in the town, despite the lack of indications that Russia had made any such advance. After Polymarket had paid out the winners of the bet, ISW’s edit mysteriously disappeared by the following morning.

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